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Quantitative Finance · Glossary

What is Forecast calibration, alpha scaling rule?

Also known as: forecast calibration · alpha scaling rule

Definition 15.1 Research Craft: Predictors, Backtests, Measurement, Portfolios · Chapter 15 — From Signal to Forecast

Forecast calibration is the mapping of a score into an expected return such that, among the names given any forecast, the average realised return equals the forecast. The alpha scaling rule sets the expected residual return of a name to αi=IC⋅ωi⋅zi\alpha_i = \mathrm{IC}\cdot\omega_i\cdot z_i, with ziz_i the standardised score and ωi\omega_i the name’s residual volatility over the horizon.

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