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Quantitative Finance · Begrippenlijst

Wat is Symmetry argument?

Definition 10.5 The Interview Book · Hoofdstuk 10 — Probability I

A symmetry argument computes a probability or an expectation by exhibiting a transformation of the sample space that preserves probabilities and exchanges the outcomes of interest, so that they must have equal probability, without computing either.

Voorbeelden

Example 10.6 (The first ace)

Where, on average, is the first ace in a shuffled deck? The four aces cut the 48 other cards into five gaps, and by symmetry each gap holds on average 48/5=9.648/5 = 9.6 cards, so the first ace is at position 9.6+1=53/5=10.69.6 + 1 = 53/5 = 10.6 on average. An exhaustive count over small decks confirms the formula (n+1)/(k+1)(n+1)/(k+1).

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