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Quantitative Finance · Glosario

¿Qué es Generalisation error, overfitting, bias–variance decomposition?

También llamado: generalisation error · overfitting · bias--variance decomposition

Definition 1.3 Machine Learning for Markets · Capítulo 1 — Why Financial Machine Learning Is Different

The generalisation error of a fitted model f^\hat f is its expected loss on a new draw (x,y)(x, y) from the distribution the model will meet. Overfitting is the fitting of features of the training sample that do not recur, so that the in-sample loss understates the generalisation error. For the squared loss, the bias–variance decomposition splits the expected generalisation error at a point into noise, squared bias and variance (Proposition 1.4).

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