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Quantitative Finance · المسرد

ما معنى Johansen test؟

Definition 20.8 Quantitative Methods · الفصل 20 — Multivariate Series and Cointegration

The Johansen test (Johansen, 1988, 1991) estimates the VECM by maximum likelihood under the restriction rank⁡Π=r\operatorname{rank}\Pi = r: after removing the short-run dynamics from ΔYt\Delta Y_t and Yt−1Y_{t-1}, the squared canonical correlations λ^1≥⋯≥λ^k\hat\lambda_1 \ge \dots \ge \hat\lambda_k between the two residual sets give the trace statistic −T∑i>rln⁡(1−λ^i)-T\sum_{i>r}\ln(1 - \hat\lambda_i) for rank at most rr, and the maximum-eigenvalue statistic −Tln⁡(1−λ^r+1)-T\ln(1 - \hat\lambda_{r+1}); the corresponding eigenvectors estimate β\beta.

Top: the 2-, 5- and 10-year Treasury yields, 1976–2026, each indistinguishable from a random walk. Bottom: two flies, long the 5-year and short the wings, with the 5-year weight one: the one-two-one weights (0.5, 0.5) and the Johansen weights (0.41, 0.61), whose half-lives are 63 and 43 trading days. Data: FRED series DGS2, DGS5 and DGS10 (H.15).
Figure 20.3. Top: the 2-, 5- and 10-year Treasury yields, 1976–2026, each indistinguishable from a random walk. Bottom: two flies, long the 5-year and short the wings, with the 5-year weight one: the one-two-one weights (0.5, 0.5) and the Johansen weights (0.41, 0.61), whose half-lives are 63 and 43 trading days. Data: FRED series DGS2, DGS5 and DGS10 (H.15).
Johansen fly weights (per unit of the 5-year) estimated on rolling five-year windows, with the full-sample values 0.41 and 0.61 (dashed). Four windows whose weights exceed 1.5 in absolute value are not shown; in 20 of the 46 windows the trace test does not find cointegration at 5%. Data: FRED series DGS2, DGS5 and DGS10 (H.15).
Figure 20.4. Johansen fly weights (per unit of the 5-year) estimated on rolling five-year windows, with the full-sample values 0.41 and 0.61 (dashed). Four windows whose weights exceed 1.5 in absolute value are not shown; in 20 of the 46 windows the trace test does not find cointegration at 5%. Data: FRED series DGS2, DGS5 and DGS10 (H.15).
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