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Quantitative Finance · Glossário

O que é Probability of informed trading?

Definition 4.9 Microstructure and Execution · Capítulo 4 — Why There Is a Spread

The probability of informed trading (PIN) of Easley, Kiefer, O’Hara and Paperman is, in their model of daily order flow, the share of trades that come from informed traders: PIN=αμ/(αμ+εb+εs)\mathrm{PIN}=\alpha\mu/(\alpha\mu+\varepsilon_b+\varepsilon_s), where an information event occurs on a day with probability α\alpha, is bad news with probability δ\delta, brings informed orders at rate μ\mu, and uninformed buys and sells arrive at rates εb\varepsilon_b and εs\varepsilon_s.

Maximum-likelihood PIN on simulated samples of 250 days (mean and standard deviation over 20 samples), against the size of a common daily factor on the uninformed rates; the dashed line is the true PIN of the informed market. Data: mx_spread.pin_bias.
Figure 4.3. Maximum-likelihood PIN on simulated samples of 250 days (mean and standard deviation over 20 samples), against the size of a common daily factor on the uninformed rates; the dashed line is the true PIN of the informed market. Data: mx_spread.pin_bias.
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