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Earth and Space Sciences · 术语表

什么是 Exceedance probability？

Definition 28.3 University Earth and Space Sciences — Year 2 · 第 28 章 — Geological Hazards and Risk

The exceedance probability of a level in an exposure time $t$ is the probability that the level is equalled or exceeded at least once during $t$ .

Left: the probability of at least one event in an exposure time t for return periods of 50, 475 and 2475 years; the 475-year event has a 10\,\% chance in 50 years. Right: the intervals between the 696 earthquakes of magnitude at least 7 in the global catalogue of 1976–2025, against the exponential law of a Poisson process of the same rate. Data: USGS ANSS Comprehensive Catalog. — Left: the probability of at least one event in an exposure time $t$ for return periods of 50, 475 and 2475 years; the 475-year event has a $10\,\%$ chance in 50 years. Right: the intervals between the 696 earthquakes of magnitude at least 7 in the global catalogue of 1976–2025, against the exponential law of a Poisson process of the same rate. Data: USGS ANSS Comprehensive Catalog.

Left: the probability of at least one event in an exposure time t for return periods of 50, 475 and 2475 years; the 475-year event has a 10\,\% chance in 50 years. Right: the intervals between the 696 earthquakes of magnitude at least 7 in the global catalogue of 1976–2025, against the exponential law of a Poisson process of the same rate. Data: USGS ANSS Comprehensive Catalog. — Left: the probability of at least one event in an exposure time $t$ for return periods of 50, 475 and 2475 years; the 475-year event has a $10\,\%$ chance in 50 years. Right: the intervals between the 696 earthquakes of magnitude at least 7 in the global catalogue of 1976–2025, against the exponential law of a Poisson process of the same rate. Data: USGS ANSS Comprehensive Catalog.

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