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Earth and Space Sciences · 术语表

什么是 Large ensemble; emergent constraint?

又称: large ensemble · emergent constraint

Definition 22.13 University Earth and Space Sciences — Year 3 · 第 22 章 — Climate Models

A large ensemble is a set of many simulations by a single model, with the same forcings over the same period, that differ only in their initial states. An emergent constraint is a relationship, found across an ensemble of different models, between an observable quantity of the present climate and a quantity of the future one, such as the ECS; the observed value of the first then narrows the range of the second.

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