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Earth and Space Sciences · 术语表

什么是 Multiple climate equilibria; saddle-node bifurcation？

又称： multiple climate equilibria · saddle-node bifurcation

Definition 22.3 University Earth and Space Sciences — Year 3 · 第 22 章 — Climate Models

A climate model has multiple climate equilibria when, for the same external conditions, it has more than one steady state. An equilibrium is stable if a small departure from it decays, unstable if it grows. A saddle-node bifurcation is the value of a parameter at which a stable and an unstable equilibrium meet and disappear together.

The zero-dimensional energy-balance model with an ice–albedo ramp and the OLR law fitted to the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis 1. Left, the absorbed sunlight and the emitted infrared for today’s sunlight: they cross three times; filled circles are stable, the open one unstable. Right, the equilibrium temperature against the solar constant, stable branches solid, the unstable one dashed. Lowering the Sun from today’s value cools the warm planet until the warm branch ends at 1315\, W/ m2, and the climate falls to the snowball; it stays frozen until the Sun is raised to 2039\, W/ m2, where it jumps back to a very hot planet, far beyond the range in which the straight-line OLR holds. — The zero-dimensional energy-balance model with an ice–albedo ramp and the OLR law fitted to the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis 1. Left, the absorbed sunlight and the emitted infrared for today’s sunlight: they cross three times; filled circles are stable, the open one unstable. Right, the equilibrium temperature against the solar constant, stable branches solid, the unstable one dashed. Lowering the Sun from today’s value cools the warm planet until the warm branch ends at $1315\,\mathrm{W}/\mathrm{m}^{2}$ , and the climate falls to the snowball; it stays frozen until the Sun is raised to $2039\,\mathrm{W}/\mathrm{m}^{2}$ , where it jumps back to a very hot planet, far beyond the range in which the straight-line OLR holds.

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