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Earth and Space Sciences · 术语表

什么是 Scenario and projection?

又称: emission scenario · projection (climate)

Definition 28.20 High School Earth and Space Sciences · 第 28 章 — Climate Change: Observations, Causes and Projections

An emission scenario is a consistent story of how the emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols might evolve in the future. A projection is the response of the climate computed by models for a given scenario. A projection is not a forecast: it says what would happen if the scenario came true.

Projected warming at the end of the century for the five scenarios: very likely range (bar) and best estimate (black line). Values: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Table SPM.1.
Projected warming at the end of the century for the five scenarios: very likely range (bar) and best estimate (black line). Values: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Table SPM.1.
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