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Earth and Space Sciences · 术语表

什么是 Two-layer energy-balance model？

Definition 22.7 University Earth and Space Sciences — Year 3 · 第 22 章 — Climate Models

A two-layer energy-balance model represents the climate by a surface layer of temperature anomaly $T$ and heat capacity $C$ , and a deep ocean of temperature anomaly $T_d$ and heat capacity $C_d$ , coupled by a heat exchange coefficient $\gamma > 0$ :

C\,\frac{\mathrm dT}{\mathrm dt} = F + \lambda T - \gamma(T - T_d), \qquad C_d\,\frac{\mathrm dT_d}{\mathrm dt} = \gamma(T - T_d) .

The two-layer model with the mean parameters of the emulator of the sixth assessment and the forcing F_2× = 3.93\, W/ m2 of a doubling. Left, an abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide: 62\,\% of the final 5.9\, C after 10 years, 78\,\% after 100 and 95\,\% after 500. Right, carbon dioxide rising by 1\,\% a year: at the doubling, year 70, the surface has warmed by 1.99\, C, the TCR of the model, while the equilibrium warming for that forcing, its ECS, is 2.95\, C; the surface lags because the deep ocean is still taking up heat. — The two-layer model with the mean parameters of the emulator of the sixth assessment and the forcing $F_{2\times} = 3.93\,\mathrm{W}/\mathrm{m}^{2}$ of a doubling. Left, an abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide: $62\,\%$ of the final $5.9\,{}^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ after 10 years, $78\,\%$ after 100 and $95\,\%$ after 500. Right, carbon dioxide rising by $1\,\%$ a year: at the doubling, year 70, the surface has warmed by $1.99\,{}^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ , the TCR of the model, while the equilibrium warming for that forcing, its ECS, is $2.95\,{}^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ ; the surface lags because the deep ocean is still taking up heat.

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