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Quantitative Finance · शब्दावली

Pinball loss, continuous ranked probability score क्या है?

अन्य नाम: pinball loss · continuous ranked probability score

Definition 11.2 Machine Learning for Markets · अध्याय 11 — Probabilistic Models and Uncertainty

The pinball loss of a forecast qq of the α\alpha-quantile is ℓα(y,q)=max⁡{α(y−q),(α−1)(y−q)}\ell_\alpha(y, q) = \max\{\alpha(y - q), (\alpha - 1)(y - q)\}. The continuous ranked probability score of a forecast distribution FF is CRPS(F,y)=∫(F(z)−1{z≥y})2 dz=2∫01ℓα(y,F−1(α)) dα\mathrm{CRPS}(F, y) = \int(F(z) - \mathbf 1\{z\ge y\})^2\,dz = 2\int_0^1\ell_\alpha(y, F^{-1}(\alpha))\,d\alpha, in the units of the target; for a Gaussian forecast it has a closed form.

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