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Quantitative Finance · Glosario

¿Qué es Volatility roll-down?

Definition 25.4 Derivatives and Volatility · Capítulo 25 — Trading Volatility

The volatility roll-down of an option over a horizon is the change in its implied volatility when its time to expiry shortens by the horizon along an unchanged term structure (and, for a sticky-delta surface, an unchanged smile in moneyness); with the time decay, it makes up the option’s carry.

Left: an upward-sloping at-the-money term structure (dots at one, two and three months). Right: a three-month straddle held for a month with spot and curve unchanged: its value falls by time decay and by the roll-down of its volatility. Data: the tutorial.
Figure 25.2. Left: an upward-sloping at-the-money term structure (dots at one, two and three months). Right: a three-month straddle held for a month with spot and curve unchanged: its value falls by time decay and by the roll-down of its volatility. Data: the tutorial.

Ejemplos

Example 25.5 (Rolling down an upward-sloping curve)

The at-the-money term structure is 19.70 at one month, 20.92 at two, 21.79 at three and 23.89 at one year. A three-month straddle worth 8.69 held for a month, with spot and curve unchanged, is worth 6.81: a carry of −1.88-1.88. At an unchanged 21.79 it would have lost 1.59 to time decay. The other 0.28 is roll-down, the straddle’s implied volatility falling 0.87 point as it becomes a two-month option. A calendar (long the three-month straddle, short 1.73 one-month straddles, vega-neutral) earns 0.13 a day of carry instead, paid for with a short gamma of −0.17-0.17 (Figure 25.2).

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