All books

Professional

Apps About Coach Log in Start reading

Quantitative Finance · Glossary

What is Reality Check, superior predictive ability test?

Also known as: Reality Check · superior predictive ability test

Definition 12.14 Quantitative Methods · Chapter 12 — Testing and Multiple Testing

For KK strategies with performance series dk,td_{k,t} in excess of a benchmark, the Reality Check (White, 2000) tests H0:max⁡kE[dk]≤0H_0: \max_k\E[d_k] \le 0 with the statistic max⁡kn dˉk\max_k\sqrt n\,\bar d_k, whose null distribution is estimated by the bootstrap of max⁡kn(dˉk∗−dˉk)\max_k\sqrt n(\bar d_k^* - \bar d_k). The superior predictive ability test (Hansen, 2005) studentises each dˉk\bar d_k and recentres only the strategies that are not clearly worse than the benchmark, so that adding poor strategies to the search does not make the test more conservative.

Read in context →