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Quantitative Finance · Begrippenlijst

Wat is Reality Check, superior predictive ability test?

Ook bekend als: Reality Check · superior predictive ability test

Definition 12.14 Quantitative Methods · Hoofdstuk 12 — Testing and Multiple Testing

For KK strategies with performance series dk,td_{k,t} in excess of a benchmark, the Reality Check (White, 2000) tests H0:max⁡kE[dk]≤0H_0: \max_k\E[d_k] \le 0 with the statistic max⁡kn dˉk\max_k\sqrt n\,\bar d_k, whose null distribution is estimated by the bootstrap of max⁡kn(dˉk∗−dˉk)\max_k\sqrt n(\bar d_k^* - \bar d_k). The superior predictive ability test (Hansen, 2005) studentises each dˉk\bar d_k and recentres only the strategies that are not clearly worse than the benchmark, so that adding poor strategies to the search does not make the test more conservative.

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