A probability space is a measure space with ; elements of are events, and a property holds almost surely (a.s.) if its event has probability . A random variable is a measurable map (or : a random vector); its law is the pushforward probability measure on (Exercise 11.9), determined by the distribution function (Exercise 9.3). has density if ; it is discrete if is a countable combination of Dirac masses. The expectation is
and the transfer theorem (Exercise 11.9) computes it in the law: — in the discrete case, in the density case: Year 2’s formulas, now theorems of one theory. The variance is for .
Examples
Example 22.2
The standard laws and their transforms of note: Bernoulli , binomial , geometric, Poisson (discrete: Year 2’s tables remain valid); uniform on (Lebesgue measure itself); exponential (density ); the Gaussian with density — a probability density by Problem 10.1, with mean and variance (Gaussian moments, Exercise 11.10).
Example 22.14 (What the strong law buys)
(a) Frequencies: for i.i.d. coin flips, the observed frequency of heads converges a.s. to — the empirical justification of probability itself. (b) Monte Carlo: for and i.i.d. uniform (Theorem 22.6), a.s.: integrals by sampling, in any dimension, at the dimension-independent rate made precise in Chapter 23. (c) Normal numbers: almost every real number has, in its binary expansion, asymptotic frequency of ones (apply the strong law to the digit variables of Theorem 22.6) — Borel’s theorem, a statement about everyday numbers proved by measure: Problem 22.1 completes it in all bases.