Mathematics · Glossary

What is probability space?

Also known as: random variable · law of a random variable · expectation

Definition 22.1 University Mathematics — Year 3 · Chapter 22 — Probability: Foundations and the Law of Large Numbers

A probability space is a measure space (Ω,A,P)(\Omega, \mathcal A, \P) with P(Ω)=1\P(\Omega) = 1; elements of A\mathcal A are events, and a property holds almost surely (a.s.) if its event has probability 11. A random variable is a measurable map X ⁣:ΩRX \colon \Omega \to \R (or Rd\R^d: a random vector); its law is the pushforward probability measure PX=XP\P_X = X_*\P on R\R (Exercise 11.9), determined by the distribution function FX(t)=P(Xt)F_X(t) = \P(X \leq t) (Exercise 9.3). XX has density ff if PX=f ⁣dλ\P_X = f\,\dd\lambda; it is discrete if PX\P_X is a countable combination of Dirac masses. The expectation is

E[X]=ΩX ⁣dP(X0 or XL1(P)),\E[X] = \int_\Omega X\,\dd\P \qquad (X \geq 0 \text{ or } X \in L^1(\P)),

and the transfer theorem (Exercise 11.9) computes it in the law: E[g(X)]=Rg ⁣dPX\E[g(X)] = \int_\R g\,\dd\P_X=g(xk)pk= \sum g(x_k)p_k in the discrete case, =g(x)f(x) ⁣dx= \int g(x)f(x)\dd x in the density case: Year 2’s formulas, now theorems of one theory. The variance is V(X)=E[(XEX)2]=E[X2](EX)2\V(X) = \E[(X - \E X)^2] = \E[X^2] - (\E X)^2 for XL2X \in L^2.

Examples

Example 22.2

The standard laws and their transforms of note: Bernoulli B(p)\mathcal B(p), binomial B(n,p)\mathcal B(n, p), geometric, Poisson P(λ)\mathcal P(\lambda) (discrete: Year 2’s tables remain valid); uniform on [0,1]\intcc01 (Lebesgue measure itself); exponential E(λ)\mathcal E(\lambda) (density λeλx1x>0\lambda\eu^{-\lambda x}\mathbf 1_{x>0}); the Gaussian N(m,σ2)\mathcal N(m, \sigma^2) with density 1σ2πexp((xm)22σ2)\frac1{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}\exp\bigl(-\frac{(x - m)^2}{2\sigma^2}\bigr) — a probability density by Problem 10.1, with mean mm and variance σ2\sigma^2 (Gaussian moments, Exercise 11.10).

Example 22.14 (What the strong law buys)

(a) Frequencies: for i.i.d. coin flips, the observed frequency of heads converges a.s. to pp — the empirical justification of probability itself. (b) Monte Carlo: for gL1([0,1])g \in L^1(\intcc01) and (Un)(U_n) i.i.d. uniform (Theorem 22.6), 1nkng(Uk)01g\frac1n\sum_{k\leq n}g(U_k) \to \int_0^1g a.s.: integrals by sampling, in any dimension, at the dimension-independent rate n1/2\sim n^{-1/2} made precise in Chapter 23. (c) Normal numbers: almost every real number has, in its binary expansion, asymptotic frequency 12\frac12 of ones (apply the strong law to the digit variables of Theorem 22.6) — Borel’s theorem, a statement about everyday numbers proved by measure: Problem 22.1 completes it in all bases.

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